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 Kozi Checks & Balances TaxTactics News 
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December 20.2024
2 Minutes Read

Exploring the Economic Impact of Extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

TCJA extension analysis with Yuan and Dollar comparison.

Overview of Economic Analyses by CBO and JCT

The Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation have released their analyses on extending the individual provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), set to expire at the end of 2025. These analyses are fundamental in understanding the economic implications and form part of the crucial discussions in next year’s tax policy debates.

JCT Models and Predictions

The JCT uses three main macro models to predict the economic outcomes: the Macroeconomic Equilibrium Growth Model, the Overlapping Generations Model, and the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model. These models offer a dynamic view by projecting how extensions might affect GDP over a budget window from 2025 to 2034. JCT's findings suggest extending TCJA would reduce revenue but could provide a GDP boost, ranging from 0.2% to 0.9%, depending on the chosen model.

CBO’s Take: Growth Versus Deficit

While JCT finds a growth scenario with TCJA extension, the CBO cautions that the potential benefits could be neutralized by increasing deficits that might hinder private investments. Their analysis serves as a critical balance, ensuring policymakers consider both the economic benefits and fiscal responsibilities.

Future Implications

With current budget rules necessitating a weighted average of model results, the future of TCJA’s extension will require careful consideration of each model’s strengths and potential bias. An average GDP growth prediction of 0.5% leaves room for dynamic revenue feedback, possibly trimming extension costs significantly. Such insights highlight the importance of a nuanced approach to tax legislation, signaling a pivotal shift in fiscal policy strategies going forward.

Tax Deduction Deep-Dives

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01.07.2026

Navigating State Corporate Income Tax Rates for 2026: Essential Insights

Update Understanding Corporate Income Tax Rates Across the U.S.As of 2026, corporate income tax (CIT) continues to be a significant factor in the operational landscape for businesses across 44 states. These taxes are levied on the profits of corporations, but many entities avoid the CIT by being classified as pass-through businesses, which report income on individual tax returns.Variability in Tax Rates.Corporate tax rates vary widely by state. North Carolina offers a competitive flat rate of 2.0%, while New Jersey's top marginal rate stands at a steep 11.5%. Notably, four states—Georgia, Nebraska, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania—have recently reduced their corporate tax burdens effective January 1, 2026. Meanwhile, the national average top marginal rate hovers around 6.57%.The Impact of Gross Receipts Taxes.Some states, like Nevada and Texas, impose gross receipts taxes instead of corporate income taxes. This approach, while different, can impose heavier financial burdens on businesses because it taxes total revenues without deductions for costs, potentially leading to adverse economic effects known as tax pyramiding. Conversely, South Dakota and Wyoming maintain a unique tax stance—excepting corporate income tax and gross receipts taxes altogether, creating a favorable environment for businesses.Trends and Predictions.With corporate income tax reductions becoming a trend among several states, businesses may find more favorable tax environments conducive to growth. Hence, staying informed on state tax legislation is crucial for corporate strategies.Conclusion: Why This Matters.The state of corporate income tax in 2026 will significantly influence the competitive landscape for businesses. Knowing the rates and trends can help companies make informed financial decisions. As states continue to adjust their tax frameworks, navigating these changes is essential for long-term success.

12.16.2025

Why Excise Taxes Cannot Replace Property Taxes for Local Governments

Update Understanding the Role of Property Taxes in Local Governance Property taxes are a crucial financial pillar for local governments across the United States, contributing significantly to funding essential services such as education, public safety, and infrastructure. These taxes, generated from the assessed value of real estate, account for approximately 70% of local tax revenue nationwide, highlighting their importance in community budget allocations. A quick glance at effective tax rates reveals a stark contrast; for instance, homeowners in Illinois face an average property tax rate of 1.83%, while those in Hawaii enjoy a much lower 0.32% rate. This variability stems from differences in state fiscal policies and the broader economic landscape of each region. The Inadequacy of Excise Taxes as a Replacement In recent discussions about reforming tax strategies, some legislators have proposed increasing excise taxes, such as cigarette and fuel taxes, to ease the burden of rising property taxes. The problem with this approach, however, is the inherent instability and narrow tax base associated with excise taxes, which fluctuate with consumer behavior and economic cycles. For instance, while the Nebraska government collected $5.3 billion from property taxes, proposed increases in excise taxes, even substantial ones, fail to generate comparable revenue. As a result, relying on excise taxes could jeopardize the funding stability crucial for community services, particularly during economic downturns. Comparing Property Taxes with Sales Taxes Another contentious issue is the suggestion of swapping property taxes for higher sales taxes. Although some lawmakers claim this would create a more equitable system, studies show that sales taxes tend to disproportionately impact lower-income households. For example, research indicates families in the lowest income brackets often pay a higher percentage of their income in sales taxes compared to property taxes. This highlights the regressive nature of sales taxes, further complicating the narrative around tax reforms aimed at alleviating property tax burdens. Long-Term Impact on Local Services When local governments consider alternative tax strategies, it is crucial to assess the long-term implications on essential services. Property taxes have proven to be a more stable and predictable funding source for local governments compared to sales taxes or excise taxes, which are subject to economic fluctuations. The consistent revenue stream provided by property taxes supports ongoing public services, ensuring schools remain funded, emergency services are adequately equipped, and community infrastructure is maintained. In contrast, taxes that fluctuate with economic conditions can lead to volatile funding that does a disservice to local communities. The Implications for Local Governance Ultimately, while alternatives to property taxes are often proposed, the underlying necessity for stable revenue underscores the need for careful consideration of fiscal policies. If property taxes were significantly reduced or eliminated without a reliable replacement, it could diminish local governments' ability to deliver vital services. Policymakers must prioritize maintaining a tax structure that supports community needs while also exploring ways to address concerns about property tax equity. Conclusion As debates about tax reforms continue, it is clear that replacing property taxes with less stable alternatives is not a viable solution. Instead, local governments should focus on adjusting current property tax systems to ensure they meet the needs of all homeowners while maintaining the crucial funding essential for public services.

12.12.2025

Navigating the Controversial QSBS Exclusion: Investment Strategies for Startups

Update Understanding the Qualified Small Business Stock (QSBS) Exclusion In the evolving landscape of U.S. tax law, the Qualified Small Business Stock (QSBS) exclusion has emerged as both a boon and a burden. Under Section 1202 of the Internal Revenue Code, this provision theoretically allows investors to exclude significant portions—up to 100%—of their capital gains when selling stock from qualified small businesses. Initially designed to stimulate investment in burgeoning startups, it inadvertently favors certain industries and complicates investment decisions. The Case Against QSBS: Why It’s Viewed as a Distorted Subsidy The QSBS exclusion has been critiqued for introducing distortive effects on market decisions. By primarily benefiting those who can afford specialized legal advice, it skews investment toward particular structures and expansions that may not reflect genuine business fundamentals. For instance, provisions set out in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) exacerbate these distortions with increased limits and eligibility criteria, leading to greater complexity while making it harder for average investors to engage effectively. Alternatives to QSBS for Encouraging Investment Many economists argue that simplifying tax codes to promote expensing of short-lived assets would better serve growth. A streamlined approach not only reduces complexity but ensures that investment decisions are based on business needs rather than tax incentives. OBBBA's other provisions, which improve capital investment treatment, take steps in this direction but still fall short of eliminating QSBS’s convoluted legacy. Future Predictions: What Lies Ahead for QSBS Regulations As we look forward, it's essential to monitor how the QSBS policies evolve and their long-term implications on investment behavior. With growing concerns about fairness and neutrality in tax codes, potential reforms may phase out or revise the QSBS exclusion to better reflect equitable economic practices. This could steer investments toward industries that truly need capital infusion rather than merely those that can navigate the complexities of the current system. Common Misconceptions About QSBS Amidst the complexities surrounding QSBS, several myths persist, particularly among new investors. One widespread belief is that all shares held in startup contexts qualify for the tax exclusion. However, this assumption can lead to unexpected tax liabilities for those unfamiliar with the intricate requirements governed by gross asset limits, duration of stock holding, and active business status. Your Next Steps: Navigating the QSBS Landscape For stakeholders in the startup ecosystem—founders, early employees, and even seasoned investors—familiarity with QSBS qualifications is vital. The potential for achieving significant tax savings by leveraging QSBS calls for strategic planning and awareness. For many, the best approach involves engaging experienced tax professionals who can aid in the nuances of the current tax environment, ensuring you can maximize your investment returns while adhering to evolving regulations.

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