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February 17.2026

2 Minutes Read

What IRS Data Should You Watch for During the 2026 Tax Filing Season?

IRS building facade symbolizing 2026 tax filing season.

Understanding the 2026 Tax Season: Key Trends to Watch

The upcoming 2026 tax filing season marks a significant change for taxpayers, largely due to the new tax regulations set by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). For the first time, we will witness the impact of several key tax cuts on individual refunds. This seasons' preliminary data is already intriguing, revealing potentially larger average refunds than what taxpayers experienced in 2024 and 2025.

Refund Trends Over the Years

As of the first week of reporting, tax refunds have soared to nearly $19.95 billion, with the average refund amounting to $2,290, reflecting a notable 10.9% increase. This year is on track to surpass the 104 million refunds issued in 2024, and also the over 103 million issued in 2025. With nearly two-thirds of filers receiving refunds in these past seasons, we anticipate this share to increase in 2026.

The Impact of OBBBA on Filers

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act introduces various beneficial tax changes, including deductions for tips, overtime, and auto loan interest. Crucially, many taxpayers found themselves over-withheld due to these changes not being reflected in withholding tables. Thus, we're expecting larger-than-usual refunds as a direct consequence of this over-withholding.

Long-Term Economic Growth Expectations

Despite the anticipated surge in refunds, the larger goal of the OBBBA extends beyond immediate financial relief. By implementing permanent reductions in marginal tax rates, the Act aims to boost economic incentives, thereby fostering growth in the long term. Taxpayers will likely find more opportunity as these changes take root in the fabric of economic policies.

As we move closer to the 2026 filing season, monitoring these IRS data points will be essential in understanding both individual taxpayer experiences and broader economic trends. Keeping abreast with trusted analyses on these developments will provide valuable insights for informed tax filing decisions.

To stay informed about how these policies impact your finances, consider subscribing to tax updates from trusted experts.

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What IRS Data Should You Watch for During the 2026 Tax Filing Season?

Understanding the 2026 Tax Season: Key Trends to Watch

Refund Trends Over the Years

The Impact of OBBBA on Filers

Long-Term Economic Growth Expectations

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