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 Kozi Checks & Balances TaxTactics News 
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December 10.2025
2 Minutes Read

Exploring the OBBBA's Impact on Debt and Economic Recovery

How Does the OBBBA Impact Debt, Deficits, and Tax Revenue?

The OBBBA's Impact on National Debt and Deficit

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is generating significant discussions regarding its long-term implications for the U.S. economy. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently projected that publicly held debt could reach an unprecedented 106% of GDP by 2029, with a further rise to 117% by 2034. However, the forecast indicates that if the OBBBA is implemented, the debt could be pushed even higher, to approximately 124% by 2034. This scenario raises concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policies and emphasizes the critical nature of addressing national debt.

Tax Cuts Amid Rising Debt

The OBBBA is marked as a significant tax reduction, cutting about $5 trillion, or 1.4% of GDP, over the next ten years. While this cut aims to stimulate economic growth, its effectiveness is questioned. The act's provisions to manage costs through spending reductions have not fully offset the increased deficits that may arise. As a result, despite anticipated GDP growth of about 1.2% from the act, the projected increase in deficits amounts to nearly $3.8 trillion, indicating a troubling fiscal trajectory.

Economic Growth Versus Fiscal Responsibility

It's estimated that the OBBBA will only partially mitigate the fiscal strain on the national budget due to rising interest payments on the expanding debt. The projected increase in revenue will hover around the historical average of 17.3%, but it falls just short of adequately addressing the deficit. As the CBO has illustrated in its forecasts, sustaining such high deficit levels for an extended period remains unprecedented and unsustainable.

Broader Implications for Fiscal Policy

Incorporating the effects of the Trump administration's tariffs, the OBBBA may alleviate some financial pressure, generating about $2.1 trillion in additional revenue. Yet, even with these contributions, a net deficit increase of approximately $1.4 trillion is projected over the decade. This compounding effect highlights the urgent need for a more comprehensive reform in fiscal policy, particularly in areas like healthcare and social security, where expenditures continue to drive up the deficit.

A Call for Fiscal Responsibility

Lawmakers face the critical challenge of balancing tax cuts with spending reforms to mitigate long-term debt and deficits. Historical data suggests a significant need for a bipartisan approach that emphasizes fiscal responsibility. Continued measures such as health care reforms, enhanced revenue streams, and stringent spending controls are vital in ensuring that the U.S. can navigate through its fiscal challenges effectively.

In summary, while the OBBBA aims to infuse the economy with tax cuts and spur growth, it comes at a steep fiscal cost. It is imperative for policymakers to harmonize these benefits with a responsible approach to managing future debts and deficits to secure economic stability.

Tax Deduction Deep-Dives

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12.09.2025

Why Some States May Tax NCTI Despite Exemptions on GILTI

Update NCTI: The Unforeseen Tax Challenge for States The taxation landscape is shifting drastically as states begin to grapple with the implications of net CFC-tested income (NCTI), the successor to the global intangible low-taxed income (GILTI) tax. While several states like Iowa, Kansas, New Hampshire, and Tennessee previously opted out of GILTI, their decisions may not shield them from the complexities of NCTI. This conundrum arises primarily from the specific wording in their tax codes that exempt GILTI by name rather than through broader references in the Internal Revenue Code. A Patchwork of State Responses Across the nation, twelve additional states (Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, and the District of Columbia) have taken measures to exclude GILTI from their state tax codes. However, these measures may not automatically extend to NCTI. Arizona, in particular, stands at a crossroads, where its determination regarding NCTI remains uncertain. This discrepancy introduces a degree of unpredictability for corporations operating in these regions, potentially exposing them to taxation on international income that they would have previously considered exempt. State vs. Federal Taxation: A Growing Disconnect At the federal level, NCTI serves as a minimum tax designed to complement existing income taxation on international earnings. However, states do not provide foreign tax credits, a crucial element in the federal system meant to alleviate some of the tax burden on businesses with foreign subsidiaries. Consequently, states that choose to conform to NCTI effectively levy a tax on a portion of income generated abroad, regardless of whether those income streams are subject to significant foreign taxation. This disconnect amplifies double taxation concerns, putting states that adopt NCTI at a competitive disadvantage. Why Decoupling from NCTI is Urgent Decoupling from NCTI is not merely a technical tax decision but a necessary policy stance that can safeguard local economies. The urgency is particularly high for states—like Iowa and New Hampshire—that previously enacted measures to exempt certain international income from taxation. If state lawmakers do not act swiftly, businesses may face unfavorable tax liabilities. Compounding the issue further, the taxation of NCTI does not reflect the economic realities of foreign operations and could lead to companies restructuring their operations and investments to minimize their tax exposure in these high-tax states. Looking Forward: Action Steps for Lawmakers As we move toward 2026 and the full implementation of NCTI, there is a critical need for state legislators to address these discrepancies in their tax codes. The introduction of clear guidelines and a commitment to decoupling from NCTI can help states maintain their economic attractiveness. Moreover, definitive legislative action can provide clarity to taxpayers and ensure a fair taxation system that does not penalize businesses engaged in legitimate international operations. In conclusion, the evolving nature of state tax codes concerning NCTI presents a unique challenge that demands prompt attention from policymakers. Failure to act may not only jeopardize state revenue but could also hinder competitiveness and deter economic growth. Stakeholders are encouraged to engage with local policymakers to advocate for tax decisions that support business innovation and economic resilience.

11.27.2025

Navigating UK Tax Increases: A Shift Towards Pro-Growth Policies Is Essential

Update Time for a Paradigm Shift in UK Taxation The recently proposed UK tax measures come amidst declarations from the Labour Party to prioritize economic growth and safeguard working people from further financial strain. However, the decision to impose significant tax hikes on labor, savings, and investment raises concerns about the overarching economic strategy. Understanding the Tax Increases Current proposals include freezing personal income tax and National Insurance thresholds, which means workers will effectively pay more over time. The reduction of tax benefits for pension contributions and the increased tax rates on dividends and savings are positioned to generate around £26 billion but at a cost to the people who are already struggling in a tight economy. Impact on Employment and Growth Three key insights emerge regarding the implications for employment: First, freezing tax thresholds diminishes the after-tax returns for workers, discouraging additional income-generating efforts. As employers potentially absorb these costs, job opportunities may dwindle, which subsequently slows economic growth. Secondly, the higher taxes on savings and investment can create a disincentive for capital accumulation, and finally, disjointed tax policies might inhibit the establishment of a competitive edge for UK businesses in a global market. A Closer Look at Policy Alternatives While the government’s intentions appear constructive, there remains a missed opportunity to delve into pro-growth tax reforms that incentivize both individual productivity and corporate investment. Instead of increasing the labor tax burden, policies that promote capital gains tax relief or stimulate entrepreneurial ventures could favor economic revitalization. Moreover, refocusing tax strategies to incentivize long-term investments rather than quick financial gains could offer a more sustainable economic pathway for the UK. Call for Comprehensive Tax Reforms The UK's current economic climate necessitates a reevaluation of its tax system. To mitigate the burdens imposed on the working populace, there is a pressing need to simplify and streamline tax regulations, ensuring their alignment with the government's growth ambitions rather than stifling them. Readers are encouraged to stay informed and advocate for a balanced approach that supports economic growth while retaining fairness in taxation. Only through collaborative discourse can we chart a path towards fiscal responsibility and a prosperous future for all citizens.

11.26.2025

Navigating Rental Car Tax Rates: What Every Traveler Should Know

Update Understanding Rental Car Taxes Across the U.S.As the holiday season approaches, many Americans plan to travel, often turning to rental cars as their preferred means of transportation. While this convenient choice offers flexibility, many may not realize that renting a car comes with a hefty tax burden that varies significantly from state to state.Why Are Rental Car Taxes So High?Rental car taxes apply a unique twist on traditional sales and excise taxes. These taxes, imposed not just as a means to generate revenue but often framed as a way of sharing the tax burden with nonresidents, can be perplexing. In most states, rental cars face a combination of both fixed and percentage-based taxes, which together can mount to substantial costs.Comparative Tax Burdens: The Highest and the LowestAccording to recent analyses, the highest tax rate on rental cars can hit a staggering 22.5 percent in Minnesota, while other states like Colorado and New York closely follow with rates of 21.5 percent and 20.5 percent, respectively. In contrast, states like Delaware offer a breath of fresh air for travelers with only a 2.0 percent average tax on rentals. This stark contrast illustrates not only the financial implications of rental taxes but reveals diversity in state tax structures.What Does This Mean for Travelers?For travelers, being informed about states' tax policies can lead to significant savings. The differing rates and the presence of other fees (like airport fees) can add upwards of hundreds of dollars to a rental bill. Understanding how your destination’s tax rates work can greatly influence travel budgeting and decision-making.Your State's Ranking: Check Before You RentAs you gear up for travel, whether visiting family or exploring new destinations, knowing how your state—and the areas you are traveling to—rank in rental car taxes is crucial. Some states impose additional local taxes that can enhance these rates, making it essential to research beforehand. Compare rates effectively, and you can sidestep hefty tax bills.

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