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 Kozi Checks & Balances TaxTactics News 
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December 13.2024
2 Minutes Read

Rising Taxes in 2026? How Baselines and the TCJA Impact Your Wallet

Professional man smiling confidently, TCJA expiration context.

Understanding the Budgetary Baseline Debate

Taxes might soon rise for millions of Americans if Congress doesn't act by January 1, 2026. This is because the provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) are set to expire. While lawmakers discuss ways to address this potential cliff, the approach to measuring the budgetary impact of extending these cuts is a hot topic. Sen. Mike Crapo suggests using a "current policy baseline" rather than the "current law baseline." This means planning for future budgets as if extending the TCJA tax cuts would have no additional impact on revenue.

The Impact on Taxpayers and Government Debt

If the TCJA isn't extended, a significant tax increase awaits nearly 62% of tax filers. On average, taxpayers could face a $2,853 hike with the expiration of individual provisions. However, if lawmakers adopt the current policy baseline for future budgeting, the deficits and national debt could rise as the extension would show zero immediate budget impact. Yet, this doesn't change the actual forecast for increased debt due to lower revenue under extended tax cuts, adding complexity to already intricate fiscal planning.

Why Should You Care?

Most taxpayers are unaware of the looming tax changes. Understanding the potential changes can help individuals better prepare for future financial planning. By learning about these baseline debates, you can have informed discussions and perhaps contribute to a community-wide awareness, ensuring everyone is better prepared for any financial shifts that may come their way.

Tax Deduction Deep-Dives

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10.23.2025

How OBBBA Upheld the Progressive Tax System Amid Complexities

Update The Impact of OBBBA on the Progressive Tax System The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), enacted in 2025, has been a significant point of discussion regarding its influence on the federal tax system. Operating at a scale not seen since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017, the OBBBA is said to maintain the progressiveness of the federal income tax, bringing both benefits and drawbacks to various income groups. Understanding Tax Progressivity Tax progressivity means that tax rates increase as income rises, with the wealthy contributing a larger share of their income compared to lower-income individuals. The recent changes have reportedly upheld this structure, ensuring that taxation corresponds fairly to citizens’ ability to pay. However, some taxpayers in the top quintile of earners may not feel these benefits equally due to the introduction of new gross tax hikes affecting high-income earners. The Arithmetic of Redistribution: Examining After-Tax Income Figures The OBBBA proposes an average increase in after-tax incomes, with projections indicating an average rise of 2.9% in 2025 and 5.4% in 2026. The bottom quintile might see an increase of about 1.5% in 2025, possibly due to new limits on popular credits like the child tax credit and the earned income tax credit. Complexity vs. Simplicity: A Double-Edged Sword While the OBBBA aims to simplify tax implications by making temporary TCJA provisions permanent, it paradoxically introduces complexities. New deductions for overtime income, tipped income, and senior citizens further entangle an already complicated tax system. Critics argue that these additions detract from the primary goal of a streamlined fiscal policy. Public Sentiment and Legislative Disconnect Public opinion surrounding the OBBBA remains divided; a significant proportion of respondents express concern that the tax cuts favor wealthy individuals over lower-income groups. Polls indicated that while financial repercussions could be significant, many citizens felt ill-equipped to assess the real implications of such expansive legislation. Future Considerations for Tax Policy Reform Looking forward, it is essential to scrutinize how each provision of the OBBBA will affect social welfare programs and the federal deficit. While the Act promises sleepless nights for policymakers seeking to confront long-term challenges in the tax code, it opens avenues for reevaluation as provisions begin to expire after 2028. Historical patterns suggest that bridging the gap between public opinion and legislative action will require increased transparency and public engagement. The continued progression of tax reform demands balancing effective policy incurred by societal needs and the pressing nature of public sentiment. The OBBBA may provide the necessary foundation for a more responsive fiscal approach that truly represents the diverse needs of all citizens.

10.07.2025

The Hidden Costs of Property Tax Repeal: Why Revenue Replacement Matters

Update Understanding the Complex Landscape of Property Tax RepealProperty taxes are the largest revenue source for local governments in the U.S., generating over 70 percent of local tax revenue, by some estimates. They primarily fund essential services like education, public safety, and infrastructure. However, dissatisfaction with property taxes prompts discussions about their elimination, leading to important questions: if property taxes are repealed, how will that lost revenue be replaced, and what are the implications for local communities?The Challenge of Revenue ReplacementReplacing property tax revenue is fraught with challenges. In various jurisdictions, local sales and income tax bases differ significantly, complicating any attempt to equalize funding. For example, an agricultural area may find itself with no viable sales tax base to harness, while urban regions might not have sufficient income tax revenue potential. As a result, any alternative tax replacements could exacerbate existing inequalities, pressing communities to grapple with deeper economic divides.Moreover, the push for local taxing authority can lead to diverse tax rates across regions. For example, Florida’s mixed local and state sales tax rates can reach as high as 15.34 percent in some counties, placing an enormous stress on local consumers. The variations don’t just threaten local economies; they also risk alienating residents from essential services that rely on tax funding.A Look at Previous Attempts and their Economic ConsequencesVarious proposals for property tax alternatives have arisen, including local income taxes and increased sales taxes. However, evidence suggests that income taxes tend to drive wealthier citizens to relocate to lower-tax regions, ultimately leading to decreased funding for local services in higher-tax areas. A study explored in the AIER highlights how recent reforms have failed to successfully replace property tax revenue without creating economic distortions. This trend can ripple out to affect businesses and residents alike, discouraging investment in crucial local services.What Lies Ahead: Future Predictions and ConsequencesDismissing property taxes can appear appealing, particularly due to their unpopularity among taxpayers. However, experts argue that any repeal must be approached with a detailed plan to replace the lost revenue. Without a systematic replacement strategy, communities risk losing funding essential for their operations.The Path Forward: Informed Decisions and Voter EngagementProponents of property tax repeal must engage in open discussions on replacement taxes, shedding light on the true cost of cancellation. Residents should have the opportunity to evaluate any new proposals thoroughly and take accountability for how funding will be structured in the future. Understanding these dynamics will empower voters to make more informed decisions that ensure sustainable community funding.The path to tax reform is challenging and riddled with complexities. But ignoring the consequences of property tax repeal could have lingering effects on community viability and growth. Engaging in this dialogue not only informs voters but also holds government accountable for the services and taxes they prioritize.

10.03.2025

How Limiting the Tax Exclusion for Employer-Sponsored Health Insurance Can Benefit Everyone

Update The Tax Exclusion for Employer-Sponsored Health Insurance: An Overview The exclusion of employer-sponsored health insurance (ESI) premiums from federal income and payroll taxes has been a long-standing practice in the U.S., dating back to World War II. This exclusion currently costs the federal government an estimated $5.9 trillion over the next decade, as projected by the Treasury Department. It incentivizes employers to provide health insurance rather than boost taxable wages, effectively encouraging higher health care outlays. Future Predictions: Revenue Implications of Limiting ESI Exclusions Recent analyses indicate that reforming the tax exclusion could generate significant federal revenue—up to $389 billion over the next decade—mainly from high earners. By limiting ESI exclusions at the 80th or 90th percentiles of premiums, policymakers could reinvigorate federal finances while tackling the rising burden of healthcare costs, which are anticipated to increase over 9% in 2026. This reform would redistribute some financial responsibility from the taxpayers back to those benefitting from generous health plans. Understanding Healthcare Subsidies: Costs and Consequences Healthcare subsidies have historically aimed to make health insurance more affordable, but their unintended consequences can inflate overall costs by boosting demand without addressing supply. The shift towards untaxed ESI benefits contributes to escalating healthcare prices, resulting in a greater financial strain on the federal budget. To tackle this, any expansion of premium tax credits must be counterbalanced by adjustments elsewhere, particularly by reducing the ESI tax exclusion. Opportunity Trends: Potential for Reform Experts from organizations such as the Tax Policy Center suggest several reform routes: outright repeal of the ESI exclusion, limiting it above certain premium levels, or substituting it with a refundable tax credit. These approaches would not only modify income distribution impacts but also address the root causes of soaring healthcare expenses. Implementing these changes could promote a more equitable tax system while potentially decreasing premiums in the long run. Why This Matters: The Broader Implications The discussion surrounding ESI exclusion reform goes beyond mere tax policy. It reflects deeper questions about healthcare access, economic equity, and the future of employer-sponsored coverage. With a reform strategy that normalizes compensation packages and curtails excessive health care costs, society can move towards a more sustainable healthcare landscape, potentially benefiting consumers and taxpayers alike.

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