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 Kozi Checks & Balances TaxTactics News 
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March 12.2025
2 Minutes Read

Why Picking the Right Budgetary Offsets is Key to Tax Reform Success

The Capitol dome with cherry blossoms symbolizing budgetary offsets in tax reform.

Understanding Budgetary Offsets in Tax Reform

As our country grapples with a precarious economic landscape and significant federal debt levels, the pressing question remains: how can tax reform succeed? The answer may lie beneath the surface, wrapped in the strategic choice of budgetary offsets. Lawmakers find themselves at a crossroads, needing to prioritize spending cuts over tax increases to foster a pro-growth environment.

Spending Cuts: The Path to Economic Stability

Amid forecasts predicting that federal spending will hit averages of 23.9% of GDP, significantly exceeding historical norms, a compelling case emerges for adopting spending reductions as the primary offset for tax reforms. By scaling back expenditures, particularly in social spending and transfer payments, policymakers can avoid the significant economic drawbacks associated with tax hikes. Studies from reputable institutions, including the Congressional Budget Office, demonstrate that cutting spending is generally less harmful to economic growth than increasing taxes—typically a deterrent to labor, savings, and investment.

A Balanced Approach to Tax Offsets: Seeking New Solutions

The House budget resolution indicates that allowable deficits could rise by $2.8 trillion over the next decade, necessitating stringent spending cuts in relation to any proposed tax cuts. For instance, a projected $4.5 trillion tax cut would require approximately $1.7 trillion in spending reductions. While some experts argue that such figures alone are insufficient to stabilize our fiscal trajectory, it underscores the necessity of reducing spending in practical ways.

The Role of Tax Offsets in Avoiding Economic Damage

Finding alternatives to tax increases is critical. Lawmakers are advised to explore tax offsets without imposing undue burdens on businesses that could detrimentally influence hiring, investment, and economic output. For example, amidst suggestions for limiting certain corporate deductions, it is essential to maintain a tax framework that promotes growth rather than seeks short-term revenue at the expense of long-term prosperity.

Fostering Growth Through Strategic Choices

Ultimately, any successful budget and tax reform strategy will need to prioritize the reduction of distortionary tax preferences inherent in the existing system. By eliminating fiscal subsidies that disproportionately benefit specific industries while fostering economic growth, lawmakers can not only address deficits but create a more equitable tax landscape. This approach will ensure a balanced and robust economy that supports widespread prosperity.

Conclusion: Take Action on Tax Reform

Tax reform is not just a political necessity; it is a pathway to economic stability and prosperity for all citizens. Engaging with your local representatives to express the importance of examining spending cuts over tax increases can help steer discussions towards a more balanced and effective fiscal policy. Together, we can advocate for a responsible approach to tax reform that aligns with sustainable growth.

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02.20.2026

Navigating Alternative Tobacco Product Taxes: What to Expect This Year

Update Changing Landscape of Tobacco Products In 2026, consumers can expect a surge of choices in alternatives to traditional tobacco products. With a notable departure from combustible cigarettes, oral pouches, vapes, and heated tobacco products (HTPs) are now receiving approval from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for sale in the U.S. This shift represents a significant change in how nicotine is consumed, with newer products promising reduced harm compared to conventional cigarettes. The Challenge of Taxation This newfound accessibility comes with complex considerations for taxation. While states have established rules for taxing cigarettes, the emergence of alternative tobacco products (ATPs) complicates matters. Many ATPs, such as e-cigarettes and oral pouches, do not contain tobacco, thus falling outside the traditional tax framework. HTPs, which do contain tobacco, pose their own challenges as state governments weigh the implications of taxing less harmful alternatives at the same rate as more harmful products. Current State of Tax Legislation As we enter 2026, many states are contemplating or enacting new tax bills focused on ATPs. For instance, Delaware Governor Matt Meyer has proposed increasing taxes on vapor products to $0.10 per milliliter. Meanwhile, Nebraska’s LB 1238 seeks to standardize the excise tax across various nicotine products at 30% of wholesale costs, potentially marking a tax hike for ATPs. New York is also working to expand its definition of OTPs, which could lead to notable tax increases for modern oral pouches. Funding Public Health Initiatives Increasing taxes on tobacco products not only contributes to state revenues but can also play a crucial role in funding essential public health programs. A report highlighted the benefits of raising tobacco taxes by $1.50 per pack, projecting that states could collectively prevent hundreds of thousands of youths from starting to smoke and help millions of adults quit. Moreover, the revenue generated could support programs aimed at educating the public about the risks of tobacco use. Future Predictions for ATP Taxation The landscape of alternative tobacco product taxation is poised to evolve rapidly as states adapt to these new products. Policymakers are encouraged to consider tiered tax structures that reflect the relative harm of different products, which could incentivize consumers to make healthier choices. As the market for ATPs continues to grow, aligning tax policies with public health goals will be essential for minimizing the health risks associated with tobacco use. The discussions surrounding ATP taxation are critical in shaping a healthier future. Engaging in these conversations can lead to more informed and balanced public policies that address both revenue generation and health improvements.

02.19.2026

Exploring European Geoeconomics: The Future of International Tax Policy

Update Understanding Geoeconomics: Europe's Strategic Shift As the world grapples with complex economic challenges, Europe is navigating its own path under increased pressure from global powers. In a recent speech, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated the necessity for Europe to adopt a 'new mindset' in response to economic coercion from nations like China, Russia, and the U.S. This reflects a shift towards leveraging Europe’s geoeconomic weight, encouraging a more cohesive approach to international trade and tax policy. The Impact of Geoeconomics on International Relations This new era of geoeconomics highlights the interplay between economic strategy and international relations. The EU aims to redefine its policies to influence global standards, seen through initiatives like the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and digital services taxes (DST). These policies are not just protective measures but are strategically designed to reshape global economic interactions to align with European standards, encouraging other nations to adopt similar frameworks. Challenges and Opportunities Ahead However, Europe's ambitions face significant challenges. The reaction from the United States, particularly under recent administrations, has often involved threats of tariffs and retaliatory measures against perceived unfair treatment of American companies. This tension raises a critical question: Is the cost of implementing such a geoeconomic strategy outweighed by its potential benefits? The path forward requires balancing these strategies with the realities of their economic impact on consumers and businesses within Europe. The Need for Renewed Focus on Domestic Growth As von der Leyen emphasized, Europe must also prioritize its internal economic health. A renewed commitment to strengthening domestic economies could provide the foundation necessary for a robust external strategy. By ensuring that local industries thrive, Europe can better position itself on the global stage. This intertwined relationship between domestic prosperity and international influence is crucial in crafting future tax policies that work for all member states. Final Thoughts on Geoeconomic Policy In conclusion, Europe’s journey towards employing its geoeconomic power offers valuable lessons for both policymakers and economists. As countries maneuver through rising tensions and shifting alliances, the focus should ultimately be on sustainable growth that benefits local communities and strengthens the transatlantic relationship. By acknowledging the interconnectedness of domestic and international economies, Europe can lead in redefining what it means to play a dominant role in global economics. If you are interested in understanding how these developments in European geoeconomics could affect international tax policies and trade relationships, stay engaged with ongoing discussions and analyses in this dynamic field.

02.18.2026

Explore Major IRS Data Points for Higher Refunds in 2026 Tax Season

Update Anticipating a Refund Surge: What to Expect in 2026 The 2026 tax filing season is stirring excitement among taxpayers with the promise of larger refunds, thanks to new provisions from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). Early reports show that taxpayers might be looking forward to receiving an average refund of $2,290—10.9 percent higher than previous years. This increase can be attributed not only to the overall rise in the total amount of refunds issued but also to the factors at play within the new tax laws. How Did We Get Here? Understanding the Tax Changes As we delve deeper into the implications of the OBBBA, it’s critical to understand the primary tax cuts it entails. For many taxpayers, including families and seniors, the act has introduced significant deductions that will ultimately boost their refunds. For instance, the expanded Child Tax Credit (CTC) has been increased to $2,200 per child, while a new deduction of $6,000 for seniors is also set to benefit around 24 million tax units. The tax law revamps also introduced a higher standard deduction, which—despite not leading to immediate withholding adjustments—will reflect larger refunds for most taxpayers. Tracking Key Refund Metrics: The Three Critical Data Points During this taxpayer-friendly season, the following three metrics will prove essential in gauging the impact of the OBBBA: Average Refund Size: Expect a significant increase; estimated refunds average around $2,290, up from a typical $3,000 in prior years. Total Amount of Refunds Issued: As of early reporting, the total sum refunded soars to $19.95 billion. Total Number of Refunds Issued: With more than 104 million refunds issued in 2024 and over 103 million in 2025, this number is expected to climb even higher in 2026. Preparing for the Changes: What Should Taxpayers Keep in Mind? Tax Planning StrategiesAs taxpayers prepare for the upcoming filing season, understanding these changes becomes pivotal. While the larger refunds may be enticing, it’s important to remember that they stem from adjustments enacted later in the tax year. Adapting tax planning strategies accordingly—such as reassessing withholding amounts—will equip taxpayers to take full advantage of the new provisions, ensuring they reap benefits not just at tax time but throughout the year. Ultimately, taxpayers in 2026 will not only see an immediate financial benefit through larger refunds but might also experience shifts in their overall tax liability due to the OBBBA's restructuring of federal tax policies. Keeping abreast of these developments will be crucial as Americans navigate this promising tax season.

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