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Kozi Checks & Balances TaxTactics News

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November 18.2025

2 Minutes Read

Debunking the Promise of Tariff Dividends: Costs Outweigh Revenues

Tariff Dividends Would Cost More than Tariff Revenues Will Generate

Understanding the Impact of Proposed Tariff Dividends on Our Economy

The notion of providing $2,000 'tariff dividends' to low- and middle-income Americans, as proposed by President Trump, raises important questions about the sustainability and impacts of these payments. While President Trump envisions using the revenues generated from increased tariffs to fund these dividends, the reality is much more complex and financially burdensome.

The Cost of Tariff Dividends: A Closer Look

Recent models project that these dividend payments could cost between $279.8 billion to a staggering $606.8 billion, significantly overshadowing the anticipated revenue from the tariffs, which is estimated to be only $158.4 billion in 2025. Essentially, every proposed design for the dividend would absorb all available tariff revenues, indicating a concerning imbalance.

The Realities Behind Tariff revenues

It is crucial to understand that the revenue generated by tariffs is not as straightforward as it seems. As outlined in various economic analyses, while $117 billion has been collected from tariffs so far, the effective revenue for the government is reduced due to the income and payroll tax offset. This offset occurs because tariff collections effectively shrink the overall tax base by taking money out of the economy before it reaches households.

Potential Long-Term Financial Consequences

Should these $2,000 dividends be paid out annually, the long-term implications could be dire. The estimated budgetary cost for a scheme that issued such payments annually could climb to nearly $6 trillion over ten years, which threatens to exacerbate the already precarious national debt situation. In contrast, eliminating tariffs altogether might offer a more sustainable solution for economic relief.

Looking Forward: What Should Policymakers Consider?

As negotiations around taxation and spending continue, it becomes evident that careful consideration must guide any decisions regarding tariff dividends. With the national debt approaches its maximum threshold, the focus should ideally shift towards measures that responsibly reduce deficits rather than initiate potentially reckless financial moves.

In summary, while the idea of providing monetary relief through tariff dividends may resonate with many, it is crucial for policymakers to consider the broader economic ramifications and the need for responsible fiscal planning.

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11.18.2025

Why Tariff Rebate Checks Fall Short: The Case for Ending the Trade War

Update Reassessing Tariff Rebate Checks: Short-term Relief or Long-term Solution?Recently, President Trump proposed a $2,000 "dividend" check for Americans, funded by tariff revenues. While it may sound appealing on the surface, experts warn that these checks might not offer the substantial relief families need. Instead, a sustainable solution lies in ending the ongoing trade war, which significantly impacts economic stability.The Impact of Tariffs on American FamiliesTariffs essentially function as taxes on imported goods, creating a financial burden that trickles down to consumers. By raising prices on everyday items, these tariffs disproportionately affect middle and lower-income families. As Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged, any proposed rebate checks would be limited based on income levels and would still require congressional approval to materialize. With the uncertainties surrounding this proposal, families must understand that a one-time check will not alleviate the long-term economic challenges imposed by tariffs.Economic Burden vs. Economic AssistanceInstead of temporary measures, experts suggest that the true solution involves eliminating tariffs altogether. The economic pressures caused by these trade barriers are profound; with tariffs leading to inflated costs on consumer goods, families are seeing their purchasing power decrease. Furthermore, whether rebate checks would even happen remains uncertain due to the need for bipartisan support in Congress. Families are left dealing with immediate financial pressures without a guaranteed safety net.Parallel Perspectives: Looking Beyond Immediate SolutionsThe debate over tariff rebates highlights a larger issue within economic policy: the need for long-term stability versus short-term fixes. Historical examples show that economic relief often comes from systemic changes rather than temporary financial bandages. As the Supreme Court reviews the legality of these tariffs, many are left pondering the best course of action for true economic equity.In conclusion, while the idea of rebate checks may seem attractive, they ultimately represent a band-aid solution to a gaping wound. Ending the trade war and reevaluating tariff policies could provide families with the long-term relief they desperately need. As the economic landscape continues to shift, it is vital for individuals and policymakers alike to prioritize sustainable solutions for a more equitable economy.

11.15.2025

The OBBBA: Unpacking the Myth of America's Largest Tax Cut

Update Understanding the OBBBA: A Closer Look at Its Economic ImpactIn the continuing narrative of U.S. tax legislation, the passing of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) in summer 2025 has created significant buzz about its implications for the American economy. Touted by political leaders as one of the largest tax cuts in history, the bill, however, ranks as the sixth-largest when measured against historical benchmarks. This discrepancy calls for a deeper examination of the short and long-term effects of this new law on both citizens and the economy.What does the OBBBA entail?The OBBBA extends many of the provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) while adding new tax cuts, such as reductions on overtime and tips. Critics, however, warn that the benefits are disproportionately geared towards high-income households, who may save rather than spend the additional funds. This is echoed in findings by the Tax Policy Center, indicating that fiscal stimulus from the bill may not significantly stimulate economic growth, a trend observed in various economic analyses.Historical Context of Major Tax CutsOver decades, tax reforms have varied widely in their approach and overall impact on the economy. Major cuts such as the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 and the Revenue Acts of 1945 and 1964 reduced revenue significantly as a share of GDP. However, OBBBA's impact is less pronounced, reducing revenue by about 1.4 percent of GDP over the next decade. This classification frames the OBBBA within a historical context while illustrating how, even with substantial cuts, the federal debt is expected to balloon.Future Predictions: What Lies Ahead for the Economy?As America moves forward under OBBBA, economists predict modest boosts to GDP, with long-term effects largely dependent on subsequent policies that may extend or allow tax cuts to expire after 2028. While an initial bump in consumer spending may occur due to tax refunds, higher tariffs and rising interest rates could temper economic growth. Thus, the economic landscape remains fluid, demanding vigilant scrutiny.The Bigger Picture: Long-term ImplicationsThe projected increase in federal debt by $4.2 trillion through 2034 poses significant questions regarding fiscal responsibility and the sustainability of these tax cuts. Despite temporary relief and cash infusion into the economy, there remains a possibility that debt will require urgent future adjustments. Balancing current investments through tax cuts with future fiscal health is a tightrope that may affect not just the economy but also the financial well-being of millions of Americans.Takeaway: Navigating the New Tax LandscapeAs the OBBBA reshapes the tax landscape, understanding its implications can empower citizens to make informed decisions about their finances. Staying updated on how these policies unfold will be crucial for long-term financial health, prompting individuals and businesses alike to adapt swiftly in an evolving economic landscape.

11.12.2025

Why States Should Preserve R&D Tax Deductions to Boost Corporate Growth

Update Understanding the Importance of R&D Tax Deductions Research and development (R&D) tax deductions are crucial for encouraging innovation within states. By providing businesses the opportunity to fully expense their R&D expenditures, states can create an environment that promotes growth and technological advancements. This approach is not just beneficial for the businesses receiving these benefits; it also contributes to the overall economy by fostering an ecosystem of innovation. Historical Context: R&D Deductions and Corporate Tax Revenue Historically, R&D deductions have been an integral part of corporate tax structures across the United States. From 1954 to 2022, these provisions played a significant role in shaping the corporate landscape, allowing businesses to invest more freely in the innovation that helps drive our economy forward. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 provided new opportunities with a broader tax base and lower rate. Thus, as legislators contemplate changes related to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), it's essential to remember the historical context that underscores the value of maintaining R&D deductions. The Impact of Maintaining R&D Deductions on Local Economy Maintaining R&D deductions can create a domino effect that impacts local economies significantly. When companies are rewarded for investing in innovation, they are more likely to hire local employees, expand operations, and invest in community projects. The potential decline in corporate tax revenue from decoupling R&D deductions may be immediately apparent, but the long-term effects on job creation and local investment are invaluable. Communities benefit when companies in those areas thrive. Counterarguments: The Case for Decoupling Some lawmakers argue that decoupling from the OBBBA’s expensing provisions is necessary to protect corporate tax revenues. They fear that the perceived loss of revenue early on could lead to budget deficits. However, a holistic view reveals that the long-term economic benefits of supporting R&D far outweigh any short-term financial concerns. A robust R&D environment can lead to new technologies and companies that drive tax revenue in the future. Future Predictions: What Lies Ahead Looking forward, the conversation surrounding R&D tax deductions will likely intensify as states continue to balance innovation with fiscal responsibility. As states assess the economic impact of these deductions, the hope is for a consensus that recognizes the pivotal role of innovation in today’s economy. If legislators maintain their commitment to R&D, they may find that their treasuries benefit as new technologies emerge and corporations flourish.

Debunking the Promise of Tariff Dividends: Costs Outweigh Revenues

Understanding the Impact of Proposed Tariff Dividends on Our Economy

The Cost of Tariff Dividends: A Closer Look

The Realities Behind Tariff revenues

Potential Long-Term Financial Consequences

Looking Forward: What Should Policymakers Consider?

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